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Bitcoin miners are facing a substantial cash flow problem. A very big problem.
VanEck has released an analytical framework to evaluate companies involved in both Bitcoin mining and AI data center hosting — and the verdict is rather harsh for a significant portion of the sector. Analysts Griffin MacMaster and Matthew Sigel have identified a short-term funding gap of $50 billion. In the long term, the total need could rise to $221 billion. This is not a minor accounting issue. It’s a structural fracture that will separate the survivors from the rest.
The central focus of their approach: raw energy capacity, not project announcements. For VanEck, this is the best indicator to value these companies. Not press releases. Not deal pipelines presented at conferences. The actual megawatts available now. Cipher Mining, Hut 8, and TeraWulf emerge with high valuations on this basis. Marathon Digital and CleanSpark, on the other hand, remain more focused on pure mining with few AI deals signed — their valuations lag behind.
Who Has Cash, Who Doesn’t
HIVE, with its ambitions for an AI Gigafactory, and IREN face significant financial pressures. Conversely, WULF and CIFR are better positioned because they already have secured agreements. That’s where the difference lies. Not in projections. In what’s signed.
Companies with Bitcoin reserves — MARA and CLSK leading the way — can use these assets to finance their capital needs. It’s a tangible advantage, not theoretical. In contrast, companies like REN, without these reserves, must turn to other options: dilutive stock issuances or debt. Neither is particularly comfortable in an environment of still-high interest rates. And both come at a real cost to existing shareholders.
HUT is also among those that can rely on their Bitcoin holdings to finance their needs. That matters.
Correlation with Bitcoin? Less Obvious Than You Think
VanEck challenges the notion that these companies are mechanically tied to the price of Bitcoin. The average daily correlation with Bitcoin is around 0.55 — not negligible, but far from total. MARA and CLSK remain the most sensitive to Bitcoin’s movements. CORZ and WULF, on the other hand, have significantly reduced their exposure.
This changes the risk profile. If Bitcoin falls back to $50,000, the impact will be very different depending on the companies. Some will absorb it. Others will falter. VanEck also foresees a shift in valuation methods — moving away from simple megawatt measures to discounted cash flows and delivery ratios. In other words, the sector is maturing. Quickly.
But there’s a concrete problem lingering: only about 25% of the leased capacity has been actually put into service. Not 50%. Not 75%. A quarter. And according to VanEck, it could worsen before major construction projects really kick off — in 2027 and 2028. So, in the short term, the situation seems to be worsening before it gets better.
Negotiation activity remains intense. WULF is in advanced talks for a 480 MW site in Kentucky. Bitdeer, HIVE Digital, Riot Platforms, and Core Scientific are also in discussions for new agreements. The second half of 2026 should see several of these deals materialize — or not.
What differentiates potential winners, according to VanEck, is not just the available energy capacity. It’s the project management expertise. Few of these miners have real experience in building infrastructure that meets the demands of AI clients. Building a data center for hyperscale is not the same as managing an ASIC miner farm. Deadlines, milestones, certifications — all these require know-how that many simply do not have yet. Those who miss their construction milestones risk what VanEck calls “structural downgrades.” Translation: their valuation hits a wall.
In the long run, VanEck anticipates that some of these companies could be sold or converted into REITs as their AI-derived revenues grow. This is probably still far off for most. But it gives an idea of the direction the sector is heading — less “speculative mining,” more “institutional infrastructure.”
Funding strategies are clearly diverging. On one side, MARA and HUT with their Bitcoin reserves as a cushion. On the other, companies without this safety net that must choose between diluting their shareholders or taking on debt. HIVE and IREN navigate this pressured environment, with costly AI ambitions and anchor partnerships yet to be secured.
$50 billion in the short term. $221 billion in the long term. And a 25% actual commissioning rate.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the funding gap identified by VanEck for Bitcoin miners?
VanEck estimates the short-term funding gap at about $50 billion, with a total long-term need potentially reaching $221 billion for miners turning to AI hosting.
Which companies are best positioned according to VanEck?
WULF and CIFR are considered better positioned due to already secured agreements, while MARA and CLSK can rely on their Bitcoin reserves to finance their capital needs.
Why has project management become crucial in this sector?
According to VanEck, only about 25% of the leased capacity has been actually put into service, and companies that miss their construction milestones risk “structural downgrades” on their valuation.
